Cognitive Psychology

In the mid-1950s the forbidden topics came back. The occasion was less an argument than a tool: the computer supplied a vocabulary for talking about inner processes without having to experience them — input, storage, processing, output.

That got around the behaviourist barrier. You do not have to observe a thought introspectively in order to measure it; reaction times, error patterns and later imaging make it visible from outside. Ulric Neisser gave the programme its name in 1967 and its first self-criticism nine years later.

The three files in this folder are about the same observation from three directions: people are more certain of their judgments than the matter warrants. For memories of catastrophes, for decisions under risk and for eyewitness testimony — three times, confidence outruns accuracy.